Everyone has a vested interest in and ever increasing desire to improve our ability to accurately recognize increased risk of violent behavior in any given individual. While there is a tendency to rely on putative experts to perform such assessments it is important to realize every citizen can become better prepared to spot "ticking time bombs". allowing them to alert local authorities to unusual or suspicious behavior.
Our knowledge base and list of factors that are predictive of increased risk of violence is better than most think though not as good as we want. After the eruption of each national or local dramatic incident of violence careful investigations reveal a broad range of red flags apparent to a range of people who knew the perpetrator. It is rarely ever the case that an episode of serious violence "just seemed to come out of the blue. So, the good news is ordinary citizens can increase their skills allowing them to alert local first responders and ancillary professionals. This type of communication and coordination permits all involved to put together pieces of the puzzle.
So, let's lay out the pieces of the puzzle. Research indicates that the top three indicators of violent behavior are (1) excessive alcohol intake; (2) a history of violent acts, with arrests or criminal activity; and (3) a history of childhood abuse. It is a truism that excessive alcohol use increases the risk of people behaving badly as judgment and self-control become increasingly impaired. Perhaps the single best predictor we all know is: "The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior". Similarly, any information about childhood abuse is critical given the high correlation between being victims of violent behavior as youth and becoming perpetrators of violence in their teens and beyond. Males between the ages of 15-24 from low socioeconomic backgrounds, and minimal social supports present the highest risk to become violent as compared to older people.
Along with the top three risk factors there is a long list of factors used to assess dangerousness and potential for violence. Very recent acts of violence, including property violence that strongly suggest more violence is coming unless interrupted. Verbal and physical threats (menacing or aggressive movements) should be taken at face value. Anyone carrying traditional weapons such as a knife or gun are obvious signs though carrying forks, rocks, ashtrays, or anything that could be used as a weapon warrants close attention. The presence of emotional lability and physical agitation or increased erratic movements are cues not to be ignored. Any type of substance intoxication including alcohol to prescription medications heighten the risk for violent behavior. .
Medical and mental health professionals can contribute an extraordinary amount to such risk assessments if given information about or opportunities to evaluate a potential perpetrator. There are a fair number of medical and psychiatric problems that predispose people to experience rapid deterioration in their mental status leading to increased risk for violent behavior. Patients may be violent for many reasons. A comprehensive and detailed clinical interview with a potential perpetrator, contact with fellow friends, students, or co-workers, and consultation with law enforcement personnel and other professionals with extensive experience in assessing risks and factors known to increase the chances for violent behavior.
Health care professionals are becoming increasingly skilled in the diagnoses of medical and psychiatric conditions known to substantially elevate risks for violence. Acurate diagnoses and prompt and appropriate treatment given to potential violent perpetrators can become a key juncture permitting the interruption of an unfolding and evolving act of tragic violence. It is worth noting that involvement of health care profesionals to terminate an unfolding episode of violence in no way jeopardizes the ability of law enforcement personnel from taking such individuals into custody at a prudent time nor hinders a criminal attorney's capacity to hold violent or nearly violent people from effective prosecution for any charges filed against them.
Some of the more common psychiatric and medical diagnoses associated with increased risk for violent behavior include psychoactive substance-induced organic mental disorders, antisocial personality disorder, catatonic schizophrenia, medical infections, cerebral neoplasms, decompensating obsessive-compulsive personality disorder, dissociative disorders, impulse control disorders, sexual disorders, severe thyroid disturbance, alcohol idiosyncratic intoxication, delusional disorder, paranoid personality disorder, schizophrenia, temporal lobe epilepsy, bipolar disorder, and uncontrollable violence secondary to interpersonal stress. That said, it is critical to remind the public that mentally ill people as a group are no more prone to violence than the typical citizen.
Truth be told, it takes a community to identify troubled individuals with whom we cross paths in our daily lives. Everyone has a responsibility to educate themselves on this subject so they can pass information onto designated authorities. A school janitor or university employee might play a biggeer role as compared to most respected expert in violence prediction. Individuals, teachers, employees, students, a passer-by, medical and mental health professionals, animals, co-workers, neighbors, and law enforcement officers share common ground and equal respect in community efforts to provide assistance or neutralize anyone moving toward perpetrating a violent tragedy. It is essential that all citizens and designated individuals from local first responders untis develop ever more effective methods of communication, coordination, and action plans to stop or interrupt the unthinkable.
Heightened awareness of the possibility that violent tragedies can occur anywhere and examination of mental states and behavior of people who pose increased threats to a community can be unsettling and disorienting. It is essential that people remember our world is much safer than the media lead us to believe. There is no reason to walk through our lives in guarded, hypervigilant, and fearful states of mind. Sometimes bad things happen. As individuals and community members we are well-positioned to learning the fundamentals of developing an eye for preditive factors violent people will demonstrate. Cultivation of the ability to maintain and focus awareness of our surroundings is an important life skill as we move through our lives. Similarly, developing a knack for trusting gut feelings and exercising common sense is another lifelong skill that prompts us to alert authorities to unusual or strange behavior.
It is a fact that crises and difficult situations offer opportunities to learn about a dark side of life that can not be wished away. So, we accept the challenge as individuals to work together to look out for each other as the wolves in sheep's clothing sometimes wander into our territory. Panicked and divided we become easy prey. United in a sense of Solidarity and community we alert predators that the risks of taking a risk in our communities simply isn't worth the trouble. Predators instinctively move to safer hunting grounds at the first whiff of "wolf hunters" dressed in routine attire. We've known about big bad wolves, trolls, and monsters since we were children. As we get older we apply the wisdom and lessons first encountered in fairy tales honing our skills as time goes by.
There is an old Chinese proverb worth some careful thought and reflection as it relates to identification of people at increased risk to become violent.: "Deal with a big problem while it is still small". A related excerpt from the Bible that makes clear that being naive is not a smart way to move through the world. "I send you out as sheep amongst wolves. Be ye therefore as wise as serprents and innocent as doves". Like fairy tales, these words of wisdom alert us to the responsibility we have to identify predators and protect the innocent and vulnerable from them. We are all in the same boat--good news anyway you cut it.
The world is much safer than the media lead us to believe. There is no reason to walk around in a guarded and fearful state of mind. Learning the fundamentals, maintaining awareness of one's surroundings, trusting your gut and common sense to alert authorities to unusual or suspicious behavior ought become a fundamental life skill. Divided we become easy prey. United in a sense of Solidarity and community and armed with solid information we increase the odds that today will be a good day.
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